Laszlo Lengyel: China's imperial century

If the 20th century belonged to America, the 21st will be China's. This will be the case even if China does not defeat America economically, politically, nor - let us hope - militarily, and only succeeds in counterbalancing it as a world power. To quote from Csaba Gombar, the development of the world follows the sun, passing from the Greeks to Latin Europe, thence to England, then to America's east coast, then to its west coast. And now it has reached Asia.

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China produces 5-6 per cent of the world's GDP, compared to America's 30 per cent. The struggle between the two countries relates not only to the differing growth dynamics, but also to the way in which the two countries' growth models will influence the world's globalisation models. Whose institutional order will prevail? Yesterday's model was American-style, but today this is less often the case.

The British economic Historian Niall Ferguson and John Mearsheimer, the Chicago political scientist both expect China to develop at a dramatic pace in coming decades, closing in on the US in economic terms, even confronting the US militarily if it gets in China's way.

"It will be Godzilla, not Bambi," in Merasheimer's words. There is little reason for hope, he says - all pretenders to the throne seem peaceful, before they resort to brutal force, and China will be no different.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, disagrees with the above views. China has no interest in a war, he says. Recently, the Chinese politburo asked two western professors to analyse the rise and fall of nine great powers since the 15th century.

This was an eye-opener for the power elites of the country, Brzezinski says, adding that the Beijing Olympcs in 2008 and the Shanghai World Exhibition in 2010 will prove to the world what China is capable of.

In 2005, China had only 24 ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US. (China last fought a war 30 years ago - for two weeks, against Vietnam, compared to the US's countless military actions).

I am with those who believe that the world will be drawn to three gravitational poles over the next decades: the US, the EU and China.

Three different kinds of attractive force: America's advantage is global competitiveness, its democratic institutions and its lifestyle.

The EU's is the model of integration it shows. China's is its growth dynamic, and the attraction exerted by its institutional solutions on the developing world.