Whose going to make Hungarians swallow the bitter pill?

The sociologist Tibor Dessewffy, director of the Socialist-linked Demos think tank, denies he is Gyurcsany's adviser, but admits that the two are close. He was surprised by the outcome of the referendum and thinks it too early to identify the consequences. He is certain that whichever political camp reaches power will have to force enormous sacrifices on Hungarian society - and the population is still not ready for this.

Tibor Dessewffy. Supporting Gyurcsány.

hvg.hu: As we speak, Budapest is at a standstill because of a public transport strike, and railwaymen have downed tools as well. How does a Socialist-inclined intellectual see this?

The situation mirrors recent changes. Employees' associations were frozen for 15 years after the regime change, and so there were few strikes. It's clear that the convergence programme must be carried through, whoever is in government, and this will put a brake on employees' ambitions. We're in a difficult situation, regardless of whose fault the budgetary situation is.

hvg.hu: Demos is a kind of Socialist Party think tank. Are you a personal adviser to Ferenc Gyurcsany?

Demos is misunderstood. It is a pragmatic research institute. Its aim is to shape public opinion and promote new ways of thinking. I'm not a contracted adviser to the PM with regular slots in his diary. The PM has several informal advisers, including Andras Keszthelyi, Zsolt Greczy, Balazs Varadi and others. As a sociologist, I have a particular way of seeing the world, and this worldview is similar to Ferenc Gyurcsany's. We have similar views on many things, which means I support his policies.

hvg.hu: But it is precisely these policies that have been called into question by the referendum. Last December, Demos published a study about the prospects for a minority government in Hungary. Does this mean Demos was expecting the referendum result we got?

One of Demos's research groups looked into the matter. He had already been looking at Socialist-Liberal coalitions in Europe, at breaking points. There was a growing argument within the coalition about health insurance, so it was logical to look at what was going on at home. But this doesn't mean we had predicted the referendum's outcome. I was surprised by the result, because most referendums until now had had a lower turnout than forecast. This time, most of the pollsters were accurate - something we've never seen before. The main reason, of course, is that no referendum until now has had such direct financial consequences for people's wallets.

hvg.hu: That's only because there was no time for the Socialist Party's referendum questions to be asked before the 2002 elections. The Socialists demanded free language tests - which would have cost as much as abolishing the surgery and hospital fees will.

That's true, but it's also true that both camps have used every tool at their disposal to get at the other side. Certain Fidesz leaders and their allies in the press would like to exclude Ferenc Gyurcsany from the nation altogether - trying to portray him as something inhuman. I can't accept this mood - and I'm not prepared to use such means, not even against the conservative side.

hvg.hu: Orban was demonised, Gyurcsany was demonised. Isn't that just politics?

Except Nepszabadsag clearly writes in more acceptable terms about Orban than the Magyar Nemzet does about Gyurcsany. Look at the books that have been written about them. But, returning to the social demagoguery of the referendums - I would regard it as a tragedy if the opposition party's rhetoric were as deceptive as in 2002 or 2006.

hvg.hu: What were you trying to achieve with your recent article about Hungarian intellectuals?

With my co-author, I was trying to address two groups. We've had several generations of left-wing intellectuals, and they've all protested at a lack of reforms. Now, when the leadership is taking concrete steps towards promoting individual responsibility, intellectuals did not stand up for the surgery fee and tuition fees. Instead, they washed their hands of the problem. You can't demand reforms and then fail to back them. Then you have the centre-right intellectuals, who claim to support conservative, neoliberal, modernising principles - and they should be supporting Gyurcsany's reforms based on this logic. But symbolism prevented them from doing so. There were exceptions on both sides. Istvan Hamecz was write when he said he disagreed with the government on many things,, but that he supported the surgery fee. Unfortunately, political commitment makes this kind of objectivity almost impossible.

hvg.hu: Peter Medgyessy thinks Ferenc Gyurcsany should have resigned after the leaking of the Oszod speech. What can you do about the PM's steadily declining authority?

To win back his credibility, the PM has to meet certain requirements. The collapse of the coalition has made things still more difficult, and now the question is whether minority government can work effectively. We don't know yet.