Istvan Stumpf: "The last nail in the republic's coffin"

The government is headed for a slow and painful death - and the only hope is that the government will refrain from using the national development plan to buy the votes it needs to survive, says Istvan Stumpf. Only government with broad support can hope to lift the country out of its crisis, says the former chancery minister.

István Stumpf

hvg.hu: How do you see the cabinet reshuffle?

István Stumpf: It's about hiding the extent of the coalition crisis, maintaining the appearance of government and keeping everything under the Socialist Party's control. The prime minister's most important goal was to shore up his support within the party and to find compromises that would satisfy the most important party factions. Governmental concerns are secondary. Ferenc Gyurcsany is clearly anchoring himself within the party, trying to silence dissenters and people who want change, and making sure that the Socialist Party continues to support his government.

Laszlo Puch's role in the government best illustrates the deals that have been made within the party. The PM wants to take control of the party purse. In exchange he offers others operative influence over government decisions on energy and infrastructure. At the same time, Ferenc Baja also became part of the deal: he has been given full control over information technology investments, since he was handed that part of the Economics Ministry's portfolio. So there's even more concentration of power, and people loyal to the PM have been promoted, while the real problems facing public administration have only been addressed in the most superficial way.

At the same time I think it's a good thing that Istvan Gyenesei has been put in charge of local authorities. He's been involved with them before, he's served in local councils. But doubling the number of state secretaries just increases the chaos in public administration and will breed political tensions. Ujhelyi's resignation from his state secretary post shows that the new generation is not happy with the PM's circle's rise to power - which shows you how fragile this bargain is.

hvg.hu: It's also relevant that as an independent MP, Gyenesei won't vote against himself.

István Stumpf: His appointment is clearly about buying his vote, because a member of the government can't vote against himself. Ferenc Gyurcsany needs every single vote. Restructuring the ministries, creating the post of chief secretary and increasing the number of state secretary posts within the PM's office is clearly about making more people dependent on the government, and not about rationalising public administration.

The new ministers are trying to get a frozen public administration moving again, while taking the individual portfolios apart and reassembling. We're in the middle of the summer and next year's budget is being prepared. And the individual portfolios don't know what kind of budget is being prepared.

The reshuffle just adds to the chaos in public administration. There are no laws before parliament. Regional administration is suffering from the uncertainty, because the Constitutional Court has overturned the laws that govern them, meaning that a new, legal structure has to be put together by the end of July. Public officials can feel that they are just bit-parts in an improvised political drama. They have no way of knowing what's coming next. Meanwhile, the PM changes his mind every day. Right now, he is worried that the opposition will table a vote of no confidence so he wants to stick to the old programme with new emphases.

hvg.hu: It's curious that they've created a separate transport ministry to go alongside the economics ministry.

István Stumpf: We still don't know which ministry will be responsible for which policy area. Clearly Gordon Bajnai will focus on strategic economic development issues, while motorway-building, energy policy and other infrastructure investment decisions will be left to the former post office chief, who has lots of practical experience. I suspect this had to be done so Ferenc Gyurcsany wouldn't feel the knife was being sharpened behind his back. The Brutuses, it seems, have been bought out or at least silenced for the time being. But we should have no illusions - the reshuffle was a series of moves designed to consolidate the Socialist Party. Its effect on government has yet to be determined, and it's hardly popular within the party itself. Ujhelyi's protest is a sign of this dissatisfaction.