It is the common interest of gas-importing Europeans and the gas exporters of the Caspian region that the Nabucco pipeline should break Gazprom's monopoly, according to Steven Mann, who has been tasked by the American government with persuading the various sides to work more closely together.
HVG: You didn't mention Iran as a supplier, even though they have the world's second largest reserves of natural gas after Russia. Since there are few democracies rich in gas, wouldn't it be worth relaxing sanctions against Iran to make Nabucco a more realistic proposition?
S.M.: We oppose all kinds of energy cooperation with Iran. And why would Europe want to work more closely with a regime which calls for Israel's destruction, supports terrorism directly and builds weapons of mass destruction? This would be too high a price to pay for gas.
HVG: And Turkey's role in Nabucco is a difficult one, because Ankara demands a monopoly on its section of the pipeline, agaisnt EU rules. Of course, Moscow has made the same demand with respect to the Hungarian section of the South Stream pipeline. Is it possible that if the Turks don't allow it, or insist on EU membership as a quid pro quo, then Nabucco might have to take a different route.
S.M.: Turkey knows how badly it needs gas. The closer we get to the date when gas will flow in the pipe, the easier it will be to reach agreement. And Azeri gas will be flowing to Europe in just a few years. It would cost a lot more to route Nabucco differently, although there are plans to bring gas via Georgia and Ukraine or Romania - that's White Stream. But the US will only support a pipeline which makes business sense, and this has not been proven in the case of White Stream.
HVG: The Baltic states are trying to prevent the Russia-Germany North Stream pipeline using legal means. Ukraine has threatened something similar in the case of South Stream, while Russia is making the same threat with respect to the Caspian sea. Is it possible that everyone will just stop everybody else? No pipes, no gas?
S.M.: As soon as Turkmenistan and Azerbaidzhan reach an agreement on the Caspian pipeline, there can be no barrier to this project - there is no legal challenge. There are some 6,000km of pipelines under the Caspian sea. So it would be dishonest to make an issue out of it.
HVG: Hungarians are unhappy with the EU's newly appointed Nabucco coordinator, Jozias van Aartsen, who seems more interested in being mayor of The Hague than in planning a pipeline. How do you see this?
S.M.: I haven't yet had the pleasure of meeting him. In any case I think that the EU has already done fantastic work in bringing together the different parties in the Nabucco project, especially with regard to building political and economic links with the Caucasian producers.
HVG: Given how enthusiastically the American government promotes the project, it's surprising that you're uncertain about when the pipe will be built.
S.M.: The Nabucco consortium plans to start deliveries in 2013. Constructions may take until 2018, but there will be real competition from the very beginning.
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