HVG: The World Health Organisation has been warning of a major worldwide bird flu epidemic for months now. This summer the Medical Officers' Service added their voice to the choir. Why is everyone so convinced that millions will fall ill with a disease that has killed 112 people since the end of 2003?
LB: We're not trying to alarm people. WHO's experts are sounding a warning because much of the world is not taking the danger seriously. Virologists say it's a question of when, not if. If a bird flu virus encounters a human flu virus inside a cell and acquires its ability to spread from human to human, then it could sweep around the globe. There's talk of up to 50m victims, which is a reminder of the way Spanish flu killed 20-40 million people at the beginning of the last century, and the millions of victims of Asian flu in 1957 and Hong Kong flu in 1968. Thanks to mass air transport, a single infected passenger could carry the virus from one side of the world to the other in 24 hours.
HVG: Two years ago, the spread of SARS led to the same mood of panic, but fortunately there was no serious epidemic. Isn't this fear primarily of benefit to vaccine manufacturers?
LB: I don't think that's a factor. The manufacturers' total capacity is at most 250m doses, but if there were a global epidemic we would need 2.5-3bn doses. WHO has already sent samples of the virus spreading in Asia to laboratories around the world - under very secure conditions. We received samples as well. We managed to reproduce the virus, so we have a few ampoules of vaccine to test.
HVG: But this happens every year. What made this year's effort so different that there needed to be weekly reports about how the work was progressing?
LB: Bird flu, the virus known as H5N1 is so aggressive that virologists believed that if it was injected into an egg it would kill the embryonic chicken. The vrius only spreads if it is in a living cell: that's what you need the egg for. Various biotech methods that seemed promising haven't worked yet in practice. We don't know how long the immunisation given by the vaccine will last. We start human trials in September - I have volunteered to be a subject.