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How they count?

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hvg.hu
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Every day, polling companies have news about the state of play in the election campaign. Are they biased, and if yes, then which way do these companies lean?

© Végel Dániel
Besides Tárki, the Hungarian Gallup Institute was the 'court supplier' of the Orbán era. In 2000, they won a HUF25m contract to provide polling to the Orbán government's National Image Centre, pipping Szonda Ipsos to the post. One year before, Gallup won a HUF30m contract, and Tárki a HUF35m contract to provide polling to the Prime Minister's Office. Later, Gallup won a closed tender with the PMO worth HUF34m, while Tárki won a contract worth HUF40m. On each occasion, these companies were the only ones permitted to bid.

Under the present government, state institutions have used Szonda Ipsos, GfK Hungária, Marketing Centrum and Medián. From late autumn 2002, the latter three companies have won contracts to measure the quality of government work and carry out thematic research. The PMO avoided Szonda Ipsos, which is closer to the Socialist Party. The company's chief executive, Ádám Levendel, has spent more time in the vicinity of the PM's office than on his own company's premises, according to a former colleague. Levendel was a key adviser to former PM Péter Medgyessy.

Endre Hann, chief executive of Medián, may have been thinking along such lines when he said: "Taking a public political role, perhaps as an adviser is a serious professional error. It casts a shadow over the entire profession." Hann said that while he had played a part in the birth of the new democracy as one of the founders of the Free Democrats, he had "consciously given up his political activities" when he chose his profession.

The managing director of Marketing Centrum is the same Gábor Bruck who planned Budapest mayor Gábor Demszky's 1994 campaign. Bruck continues to advise left-wing and liberal policicians. Though he does not run party campaigns, he does take on individual political assignments, including giving advise to Bálint Magyar, the education minister. The head of Tárki has had a very colourful ideological and political career. Tamás Kolosi was an adviser to Miklós Németh, the final communist prime minister, later serving in a similar role alongside Viktor Orbán. Nowadays, however, he stands alongside Ferenc Gyurcsány, using empirical data to support Gyurcsány's campaign claim that "we live better now than four years ago." Tamás Kolosi is frequently listed as one of the 100 richest people in Hungary.

But it is the Hungarian Gallup Institute that is considered closest to Fidesz. The company's surveys are taken very seriously on the Right. Gallup does not carry out polls for newspapers, unlike Szonda Ipsos, which works for Népszabadság , or Medián, which provides a quarterly report for HVG . Gallup publishes its surveys on its website to be used by the national press. The institute's statement of principles includes a commitment to independence and equal distance from every party.

A 2002 survey that GfK Hungária carried out for HVG showed that one third of the population believed that the polls had a party bias. This relatively high number is especially important since respondents could taylor their answers if they believe that a company has a party allegiance. Many believe this is the reason why election forecasts are so inaccurate.

Lajos V Mohai