Right-Wing Extremism: Back by Popular Demand

While the far-right is indeed ascendant in several Eastern European countries, its threat is decreasing in Western Europe. That’s the conclusion of the Political Capital Institute’s Demand for Right-Wing Extremism (DEREX) Index.

German sociologist Ralf Dahrendorf said it takes six months to replace a political system, six years to transform an economic system, and 60 years to change a society. Dahrendorf’s maxim takes on new meaning when we examine how people’s relationships with their democratic institutions can be transformed in the space of just a few years. The number of Ukrainians who expressed antagonism toward the political establishment skyrocketed from 25 to 51 percent during the two years following the 2005 Orange Revolution – a time when many Ukrainians felt their new leaders had let them down.

In Hungary, the proportion of people who were angry with the establishment nearly quadrupled from 12 to 46 percent between 2003 and 2009. This kind of quick, radical shift is not unique to Eastern European countries: Experiences such as wars, terrorist attacks, economic crises or extreme dissatisfaction with the government can quickly reshape a nation’s values, even when those values are firmly embedded in the culture. Such principles include tolerance of minorities, trust in fellow citizens and trust in social institutions.

The DEREX Index makes it possible to track changes in social phenomena that threaten to radicalize a society. High demand for right-wing extremism poses broad array of risks for governments: Low levels of trust can render the democratic system unable to function. Anti-elitism and economic protectionism can destroy the investment climate. Xenophobia and aggressive nationalism can endanger both domestic and regional peace.

A prejudicial, nationalist and anti-establishment public can push political leaders toward greater radicalism. A good example is Bulgaria, where Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s government frequently steps outside democratic boundaries to try to settle scores with opponents. The government’s law-and-order rhetoric, if put into practice, would make Bulgaria look more like a police state than a democracy. However, it meets with widespread public approval. 

The danger is most prominent in Europe’s eastern half. Potential extreme right-wing supporters are most numerous in countries that have recently gone through tumultuous periods, such as Ukraine, Hungary and Bulgaria. Far-right sympathies also run high in Israel and Turkey. The index shows that 20 to 30 percent of these countries’ populations are predisposed to right-wing extremism.

Although it may seem that demand for far-right wing politics divides itself along East-West lines, there is also a North-South divide. Southern members of the EU-15 such as Greece, Italy and Portugal have high rates of demand compared to, say, Scandinavia, where barely 1 or 2 percent of the population express sympathy for such ideas. Portugal is the only Western European country where demand for right-wing extremism has grown significantly in the past six years; Great Britain registered a smaller increase. In other Western European countries, demand for right-wing extremism has been waning, according to the index.

This runs contrary to conventional wisdom: People may think the far right has been gaining ground because certain components of extremism have strengthened in certain countries – for example, prejudice has risen in Austria. In addition, right-wing groups such as the Dutch Party for Freedom have chalked up successes at the ballot box. However, the overall social base for right-wing extremism has been shrinking in the West, along with its inherent political risks.

Like far right-wing parties, demand for far-right extremism is a many-headed beast that takes different forms in different countries and regions. Former U.S. Health Secretary John W. Gardner, a Republican in U.S. President Lyndon Johnson’s Democratic administration, once quipped, “Political extremism involves two prime ingredients: an excessively simple diagnosis of the world's ills, and a conviction that there are identifiable villains back of it all.” Gardner’s two ingredients highlight two different approaches to extreme-right politics: The “simple diagnosis” ingredient corresponds to DEREX’s “Public Morale” index, which measures people’s relationship with their country’s political and social institutions, their leaders and their fellow citizens, as well as their views on politics and the economy. The higher a country’s score, the lower its public morale. The “identifiable villains” ingredient corresponds to DEREX’s “Value Judgments” index, which probes people’s attitudes towards outsiders and minority groups (homosexuals and immigrants), conformity to social norms, religiosity, and obedience to authority.

In most Eastern European countries, (low) public morale plays a far greater role in people’s extreme right-wing proclivities than the people’s value judgments. This speaks volumes about the shape Eastern Europe is in 20 years after the fall of communism. East Europe’s far right makes political hay from dissatisfaction with the political system, the government and the general state of affairs. (This is increasingly true in Bulgaria and Ukraine.) In most Western European countries (except Portugal), the opposite is true – value judgments play a much bigger role. Western Europe’s (neo)populist radical parties usually build their political fortunes on opposition to globalization and demand for authoritarianism, traditionalist chauvinism, and ethnic nationalism.