The 2012 European Championships
The winning bid to host the 2012 UEFA cup will be announced in Cardiff on Wednesday. In the running are joint bids from Hungary and Croatia, another from Poland and Ukraine, and one from Italy. The decision will determine not just the location, but our future as well. An event on this scale has implications that go far beyond sport.
Vlatko Markovic, head of the Croatian football association, says: "For us, hosting the European championships is worth more than being world champion, because it will deliver far greater benefits to our economy." Croatia is football crazy according to the German press agency DPA. By contrast, Hungarians seem to have turned their back on football. The national team has not participated in a major international tournament since 1986, and championship matches attract no more than a few thousand supporters. Ferencvaros, Hungary's most popular and internationally famous club, is on the verge of bankruptcy, relegated to the second division.
Portugal spent €800m on hosting the most recent European championship, and arguments are still raging over whether it was a good deal.
Hungary is not planning to spend on that scale. The government has already capped its expenditure at €159.5m. This is unlikely to be enough, even if Croatia's contribution will almost double the expenditure.
The original plan sees the government spending Ft60.6bn on the event - but just building the stadiums will cost Ft100bn. Local authorities and private companies will have to contribute. How this will work is not clear. Public-private partnerships are the most likely option. The government is keen on PPP, the opposition and many auditors far less so.
Building stadiums will cost a lot of money. Though Budapest, Debrecen, Gyor and Szekesfehervar, the sites of the stadiums, can all be reached by motorway, there is no motorway link between Hungary and Croatia. By 2012, therefore, the M7 and the M6 have to be completed. This is likely to happen regardless of the European championships. At the same time, Szekesfehervar and Gyor will have to be linked by train to an airport. This would cost billions of forints, if Szekesfehervar were to be linked with Budapest Ferihegy, 70km away, and Gyor with Schwechat, 100km distant.
The situation is the same with building out the train network. Gyor and Debrecen are at the opposite end of Hungary, and a fast train link will have to be created between them. The railway links to Croatia will have to be modernised. Yet there is no talk of this in the development plan. It is conceivable that the EU can be persuaded to help finance improvements to the Budapest-Murakeresztur line to improve goods transport to the ports in Rijeka, Koper and Trieste.
And then there are the hotels. There is not a single five star hotel in any of Hungary's provincial cities. What companies would be prepared to pay for hotels that are unlikely to see high occupancy rates after the final match of the championship?
And what of those stadiums, refurbished at vast expense? The Ferenc Puskas Stadium can seat 61,000 people - or three times the typical crowd at the final of Hungary's first division final. More people will come only if Hungarian football improves quickly and if hooliganism can be brought to an end. All this will cost.
The last major sporting event held in Hungary is not encouraging. The European swimming championships were eventually held in a mobile swimming pool - after much vigorous argument. Private capital is not always the best solution, as the fiasco surrounding the financing of the Laszlo Papp Budapest Sport Arena shows. Admittedly, the Syma sports hall, built recently near the Ferenc Puskas Stadium, was also a PPP project - and it was more of a success.
And the event would bring in money. Some 1m spectators are expected, and they will be paying for tickets. Television and advertising rights will bring in far more money. But most of that will go to UEFA, who will pay back at most Ft10bn. Experience from other major international events, like the Formula 1 races, show that even two-day events can bring in several million euros - primarily because of the jump in tourism. But the European championships last for weeks. There will be some 200,000 extra guests in the country at all times, and their presence shines the spotlight on the host country. Since the final will be held in Budapest, we will get most of that attention. That could deliver significant long-term yield - adding perhaps a quarter of a percentage point to the country's annual GDP figures - some Ft60bn.
The Polish-Ukrainian bid is the weakest - not least because Ukraine is in a state of upheaval just as the votes are being cast. Although the presidents of both countries have said they will attend the UEFA conference, they may yet be absent. This suggests that they themselves do not believe they have a serious chance of winning.
Commercial issues will decide whether the Italian bid or the joint Hungarian-Croatian bid will win. Is it more important to UEFA to have the support of Italy's well-developed football business or would they prefer to help two small central European countries, strengthening their footballing cultures? It appears that UEFA's executive committee is not in agreement on this, so both sides will give it their all when it comes to giving their presentations behind closed doors.
Tamas Gyarfas, who is heading the Hungarian bid, said Charles Simonyi will argue in favour of the joint bid from space. They will be taking presents - Herend porcelain figurines of Dalmatian and Hungarian puli dogs, and Michel Platini will be presented with a golden football by Albert Florian - who will receive it not on his own behalf, of course, but in the name of UEFA. Istvan Kisteleki, head of the Hungarian football association will speak in Croatian, and Vlatko Markovic, his Croatian counterpart, will speak in Hungarian - to emphasise the depth of the cooperation between the two countries. The two prime ministers may also appear, as might the two countries' sport ministers. The defender Kalman Meszoly will also be there. The former manager of a Turkish team, his task will be to persuade the Turkish member of the committee. Pal Schmitt, head of the Hungarian Olympic Committee, will be there, and Jeno Buzanszky, a surviving member of Hungary's Golden Team of the 1950s. And Gyarfas insists there are further secret reserves. As to whether this was enough - we will only find out at 11am on Wednesday.
How not to be a government spokesperson
There are several ways not to be a government spokesperson, but perhaps the most effective is simply to turn down the job. The woman who just did so said she believe the post of government spokesperson was the top of her profession. If this is true, then it is obvious why she declined. But at least she can now dine out on how she didn't become government spokesperson. Like many of her colleagues, I have just such a story.
Hungarian space tourist
Charles Simonyi set off for the International Space Station at precisely 8.31pm yesterday. The Hungarian-born American businessman will spend 12 days in space, doing 200 circles of the globe as he travels 8m km.
Symbols
In central and eastern Europe, the symbols of totalitarian ideals were banned as part of the transition to democracy. Laws were passed, but it has become clear that there is no perfect solution. The symbols of left- and right-wing totalitarianism affect the public differently, as do the pictures of different movements' leaders. For some, these symbols cause derision, but for others even highly stylised forms of those symbols are a cause of fear, and so are useful to a radical minority bent on provoking the majority.
The law professor Arpad Erdei
It makes little difference to the work of a Constitutional Court judge which political party nominates him or her, according to Arpad Erdei, the 68-year-old former deputy president of the CC. Though he was nominated by the Right, he believes that it has been two centuries since there was a serious criminal lawyer who was not a liberal on matters legal.
The Szigeti Affair and Impartiality
The question is not whether Peter Szigeti, chairman of the National Elections Committee, should resign. He's not really the problem. The problem is with the bureaucrats who appointed him. The mistake was made when he was appointed. He shouldn't have been chosen.
"Viktor Orban is playing a dangerous game”
It's commonplace with Democratic countries that reporting on international affairs is more balanced and objective than that on domestic affairs. But faced with the Austrian press we have to concede that there are exceptions. Die Presse and Der Standard show few signs of objectiveness and balance. In their reports, there is the unmistakable whiff of cold civil war.
Hungary Tomorrow project
Admit it: the idea of a round table is a good one. We all like the Arthur legends, and the lustre of the round table has not faded. Questions that affect everyone and that are more important than the grind of daily problems should be dealt with by some kind of joint method - just as in the legends of the Grail. This month, a round table of experts will gather under the name Hungary Tomorrow. Its task will be to help find a consensus in the questions that will affect society in the medium- and long-term, addressing pensions reform, education and competitiveness.
Is there a way back?
EU membership and the Schengen Agreement are all very well - but often it would take just a few hundred metres of tarmac or a couple of kilometres of railway track to bring together towns that fell on different sides of Hungary's post-Trianon borders.
