The events of the last two weeks following the leaking of Gyurcsany's speech to Socialist MPs in Oszod and the unrest seen since, had completely upset all poll forecasts, said Marian, explaining how Budapest mayor Gabor Demszky's 17 percentage point lead over his challenger Istvan Tarlos had evaporated since the beginning of September.

Bela Marian said: "Our poll at the beginning of September showed that public opinion in Budapest is very different from that in the rest of the country, and also that party affiliation has a lesser role to play throughout the country in local elections. The last weeks had seen a strengthening in party loyalties, however, and the situation had enthused primarily right-wing voters while turning away left-wing voters. From that point on, national party preferences dominated, which undermined the advantage of incumbency for reigning mayors.

"The fact that the unrest did not motivate left-wing sympathisers can probably be explained by the fact that the state authority performed very poorly on the most dramatic day, when the TV headquarters were under siege. At the same time, Fidesz was successful in passing responsibility off on the government, as if the opposition bore no responsibility at all," he said. The government's weakness was thus confirmed.

Laszlo Solyom's comments had clearly brought him into the sphere of day-to-day politics, and thus the President would not longer be the apolitical dignitary his predecessors had managed to be, Marian believed. From now on, the President would enjoy popularity levels similar to those of other "politically divisive figures."