How they count?
Every day, polling companies have news about the state of play in the election campaign. Are they biased, and if yes, then which way do these companies lean?
© Végel Dániel |
Under the present government, state institutions have used Szonda Ipsos, GfK Hungária, Marketing Centrum and Medián. From late autumn 2002, the latter three companies have won contracts to measure the quality of government work and carry out thematic research. The PMO avoided Szonda Ipsos, which is closer to the Socialist Party. The company's chief executive, Ádám Levendel, has spent more time in the vicinity of the PM's office than on his own company's premises, according to a former colleague. Levendel was a key adviser to former PM Péter Medgyessy.
Endre Hann, chief executive of Medián, may have been thinking along such lines when he said: "Taking a public political role, perhaps as an adviser is a serious professional error. It casts a shadow over the entire profession." Hann said that while he had played a part in the birth of the new democracy as one of the founders of the Free Democrats, he had "consciously given up his political activities" when he chose his profession.
But it is the Hungarian Gallup Institute that is considered closest to Fidesz. The company's surveys are taken very seriously on the Right. Gallup does not carry out polls for newspapers, unlike Szonda Ipsos, which works for Népszabadság , or Medián, which provides a quarterly report for HVG . Gallup publishes its surveys on its website to be used by the national press. The institute's statement of principles includes a commitment to independence and equal distance from every party.
A 2002 survey that GfK Hungária carried out for HVG showed that one third of the population believed that the polls had a party bias. This relatively high number is especially important since respondents could taylor their answers if they believe that a company has a party allegiance. Many believe this is the reason why election forecasts are so inaccurate.
Lajos V Mohai
„Orban: Republic is only a garment warn by the nation”
Ideology reared its head in the campaign two weeks before the first round of the election. Where, before, the parties were competing on promises, with republican or national rhetoric only playing a subsidiary role, suddenly the campaign has turned into what can almost be described as a kulturkampf.
Interview with Viktor Orbán
Viktor Orbán would like to see more liberals find a home inside Fidesz, to bring the conflicts - with due respect for differences of opinion - inside the Fidesz camp. In his exclusive interview with HVG.hu, the prime ministerial candidate said he was not trying to weaken the institutions of democracy. On the contrary, he wants closer representation of the people. If Fidesz wins the election, he wants to see Parliament play an important role. He aims for the best possible relationship with the United States, which he sees as the only guarantor of Hungary's security. If the budget runs out of control, he will dock both his and his ministers' pay.
Head of the Democratic Forum
The Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) would never enter government with the Socialist Party. They would join a Fidesz coalition only if the Ibolya Dávid were the prime minister, said Ms Dávid, the 52-year-old president of the MDF, who thought it sad that only her party was protesting against corruption.
Laszlo Bito
"An inhuman desire for power, embodied in continuously changing forms and ideas," said Jozsef Debreczeni describing Viktor Orban. To some extent, I would contest this description of Mr Orban. There is no doubt that Mr Orban's statements reveal frequent changes of direcetion, but nobody can be summed up by one characteristic. There is more than one kind of megalomania, after all. Continuously changing ideas and forms are after all more characteristic of followers than leaders, of people who follow whoever happens to be in power.
Leader or prime minister?
© Túry GergelyIn your studies, you claim that Hungary was a party-based democracy until 1998, after which government...
Last before the elections
Ferenc Gyurcsány wants to define the difference between the left and right wings as a contrast between democracy and autocracy. If the 45-year-old socialist politician's party wins the election, he promises to continue by reforming the state bureaucracy, local government and healthcare. If he loses the election, he will turn to the Socialist Party and tell them: "That was all I could do."
