Almost everyone forecast a weakening in the forint in their early-year analyses, with some banks alarming the market with predictions of a euro exchange rate above HUF260. The Slovak korona and the zloty were the stars back then, wrote Barcza in Világgazdaság.

But if we look at individual currencies' movements against the euro over the past seven months we get precisely the opposite result.

By examining revenues from exchange rate movements and the interest rates obtainable from the various currencies it is possible to calculate exactly how much capital growth a foreign investor saw if he placed his euros in a new member state's capital markets.

This comparison reveals that within less than two months at the beginning of the year, the Visegrad currencies produced 4% revenues in euro terms. But this early growth was cut away by the spring correction: indeed, the zloty and the slovak korona produced negative results.

Revenues had risen back above 2% by June, which is where the other currencies stuck. But the forint drew out in front at this point, yielding 4% gains by the end of July, more than twice the zloty's 2.3%.